The pendulum in the Phoenix housing market continues to swing wildly. Not 60 days ago multiple offers were the norm and accepted offers seemed as though you had won the Lottery. The trend today has shifted to “time to cash-in” as more homes come on the market.
Buyers are now seeing between 800 and 900 more active listings to choose from every week. If the trend continues at this frenetic rate, we could reach market balance as soon as mid-August. But will it continue? I do not pretend to know the future, but when a trend is this strong it tends have good staying power.
If we compare today (June 11) with three months ago (March 11), we can see that:
· Active listings across all areas and types in Maricopa County have grown 138% from 4,820 to 11,471 active single-family detached listings have grown the most - 148%, predictably with townhouse/condos up 139%. Greater Phoenix listings are up 140%. Homes priced between $400,000 and $1 million are up 183%, while homes between $1 million and $2 million are up 163%, homes priced less than $400,000 are up 69%, while homes over $2 million are up 59%.
· Due to the increased competition among sellers, we are seeing a large jump in the number of list price reductions. Sellers' less lofty ambitions are also reflected in the average price per sq. ft. for active listings which has retreated from a peak of $364 in late April to $353 today. The price per sq. ft. of pending listings is flat-lining around $310 and showing little momentum to break through its peak level of $314 achieved in late May.
· In 2005 it took a long time for people to realize that prices would not necessarily go up forever and despite a rapidly deteriorating market, it was not until mid 2006 that sale prices started to fall. The deterioration in 2022 is much faster than in 2005 and people are primed to believe that price declines are likely, if not inevitable. The willingness to believe in price declines may compensate for the absence of homeowner distress - foreclosure notices remain close to record low levels.
It is looking possible that $305 to $310 will be a top in average sales price per sq. ft. with $280 - $285 being a reasonable mid-point for Corte Bella homes to settle in for the foreseeable future, which admittedly, is not more than 3-6 months. Anyone expecting closing prices to continue rising much beyond their current level is likely to be disappointed. Likewise, any expecting a repeat of 2005-2006 is likely walking around with a cloud above their head. We have none of the issues we had in 2005-2006. The market might go through some convulsions, but I don’t see near the problems we had in 2005-2006 and such convulsions won’t be due to the same causes as in 2005-2006.
If we do see convulsions, they will likely be in the new first-time areas such as parts of Surprise, Buckeye, and the south-east county areas. Retirement communities are less affected by convulsions although they are not immune. Each week will reveal more of what is in store for the housing market so remember to check back next Sunday.
I focus my efforts on Corte Bella, which as a retirement community often acts differently than County wide trends. For example, many homes in Corte Bella are purchased for cash so interest rates do not impact a buyer’s purchase decision. There are other dynamics affecting buying and selling homes in Corte Bella, which is why you need an expert who focuses on (and is a resident of) Corte Bella. Don’t feel you have to go it alone. If you are thinking of buying or selling call me and let’s discuss your situation.
ACTIVE LISTINGS:
· 22425 N Los Gatos Dr., Quinta Model, 1,283/sf., 2/1.75, Corner Lot - $440,000
· 13354 W Junipero Dr., San Marco Model, 1,904/sf., 3/2, Oversized lot, Pool - $623,500*
· 22823 N Las Gatos Dr., Encanto Model, 2,095/sf., 3/2 - $699,000*
· 23227 N Cardenas Dr., Mirada Model, 2,840/sf., 3/3.5, Casita - $739,000
· 12832 W Rincon Ct., Cambria Model, 2,470/sf., 2/2, Pool – 799,900
· 13232 W Los Bancos, Figueroa Model, 2,784/sf., 2/2.5,3 car garage - $849,000
· 13307 W Rincon Dr., Figueroa Model, 2,784/sf., 2/2.5, Golf Course, Pool - $1,055,000
· 22516 N San Ramon Dr., Quinta Model, 1,283/sf., 2/2, Golf Lot - $465,000**
* New listing this week
** Temporarily off Market
COMING SOON
· 129004 Quinto Dr., Encanto Model, 2,095/sf., 3/2 - $670,000
UNDER CONTACT ACCEPTING BACKUPS:
· 22516 N Padaro Dr., San Marco Model, 1,904/sf., 2/2, Pool - $625,000
UNDER CONTRACT CONTINGENT ON BUYER SALE:
· 22719 N Arrellaga Dr., Arcada Model, 1,636/sf., 2/2 - $470,000
· 13005 W Panchita Dr., Cambria Model, 2,690/sf., 3/2, Casita - $699,995
PENDING LISTINGS:
· 22450 N San Ramon Dr., Bellita Model, 1,154, 2/1.75, Golf Course - $485,000
· 12930 W Micheltorena Dr., Arcada Model, 1,612/sf., 2/2, Recent remodel - $550,000
· 12944 W Quinto Dr., Encanto Model, 2,095/sf., 3/2 - $670,000
· 22914 N Hank Raymond Dr., Granada Model, 3,027, 3/2, Golf Course - $859,000
· 22410 N Del Monte Ct., Mirada Model, 2,559/sf, 3/2.5, Golf Course, Water - $925,000
· 13219 W Junipero Dr., Figueroa Model, 2,784/sf., 3/2.5, Golf Course - $940,000
SOLD LISTINGS (06/01/22 - 06/12/22):
· 13418 W Nogales Dr., Montecito Model, 1,351/sf., 2/2, Corner Lot - $485,000
· 13755 W Nogales Dr., Arcada Model, 1,660/sf., 2/2 - $524,500
· 12903 W La Vina Dr., Encanto Model, 2,066/sf., 3/2 - $630,000
I am a Corte Bella resident. I may not be the listing agent on the above properties. If you or someone you know is interested in touring one of these properties, I would be happy to arrange a showing.
The information contained herein is believed to be accurate however you are encouraged to confirm this information before relying upon it.
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