Active, Pending, Sold and Coming Soon Properties as of June 19, 2022.
High prices and interest rates are keeping a lot of potential home buyers out of action at the moment. In addition, deals in escrow are falling through in larger numbers. Both these trends are causing the count of listings under contract to head downwards.
Here is the weekly chart for listings under contract for all areas & types in the Arizona Multiple Listing Service datab
You can see that in June we are below the level of the third week of January. This is previously unheard of and indicates very poor demand for the time of year. We have to go all the way back to 2008 to find a mid-June reading as low as this.
The reality is that our long-term seller's market is coming to a rapid conclusion.
The housing market is always cyclical. The cyclical nature of housing is caused by human nature, which can always be relied upon to assert itself eventually. When times are good, greed gets the upper hand and when times turn hard, fear takes over and wrecks everything. Greed in the housing market was the primary cause of the Great Recession of 2008. Greed caused people in 2004 through 2006 to do all sorts of crazy loans with dodgy lenders and crooked borrowers equally to blame. When prices stopped moving higher (they always do stop at some point) all those loans fell apart, supposedly safe Mortgage-Backed Securities collapsed in value and fear took over the market. This was actually a slow-moving train wreck that ran from 2004 through 2011.
The housing market cycle requires some pain to correct for excesses in the boom times. Times like today are a necessary part of a healthy housing market. Without normal corrections in the housing market, crashes like we saw in 2008-9 happen more often making the housing market a boom – bust industry, which is not healthy. Down times are healthy provided they don’t turn into a stampede for the exits.
What started as an orderly cool down in March quickly turned into a stampede in April and May and now, we seem to have the same developing in June. The rise in interest rates was a signal for this to happen. It was not the only cause, because if supply has stayed low, it could have coped with a significant fall in demand. But it is not just lower demand we are facing, but far higher supply because of the rush of homeowners wanting to exit the market. It is not yet clear whether this stampede will become big enough to cause home prices to fall in a significant way. They could, but it is not clear that they will. It depends on the size of the herd stampeding.
I focus my efforts on Corte Bella, which as a retirement community, often acts differently than County wide trends. For example, many homes in Corte Bella were purchased for cash so interest rates do not impact a buyer’s purchase decision to buy. There are other dynamics affecting buying and selling homes in Corte Bella, which is why you need an expert who focuses on (and is a resident of) Corte Bella. Don’t feel you have to go it alone. If you are thinking of buying or selling call me and let’s discuss your situation.
Below is the tale of the tape for the second week of June:
ACTIVE LISTINGS:
· 22425 N Los Gatos Dr., Quinta Model, 1,283/sf., 2/1.75, Corner Lot - $429,000***
· 22516 N San Ramon Dr., Quinta Model, 1,283/sf., 2/2, Golf Lot - $459,999***
· 22823 N Las Gatos Dr., Encanto Model, 2,095/sf., 3/2 - $689,000***
· 23227 N Cardenas Dr., Mirada Model, 2,840/sf., 3/3.5, Casita - $739,000
· 12832 W Rincon Ct., Cambria Model, 2,470/sf., 2/2, Pool – $799,900
· 13232 W Los Bancos, Figueroa Model, 2,784/sf., 2/2.5,3 car garage - $849,000
· 13307 W Rincon Dr., Figueroa Model, 2,784/sf., 2/2.5, Golf Course, Pool - $897,000\
* New listing this week
** Temporarily off market
*** Price reduction
COMING SOON
· 12839 La Vina Dr., Encanto Model, 2,095/sf., 3/2 - $625,000
· 13417 La Vina Dr., Cambria Model, 3/2, Open space behind, Pool - $825,000
UNDER CONTACT ACCEPTING BACKUPS:
· 13354 W Junipero Dr., San Marco Model, 1,904/sf., 3/2, Oversized lot, Pool - $623,500
UNDER CONTRACT CONTINGENT ON BUYER SALE:
· 22719 N Arrellaga Dr., Arcada Model, 1,636/sf., 2/2 - $470,000
· 13005 W Panchita Dr., Cambria Model, 2,690/sf., 3/2, Casita - $699,995
PENDING LISTINGS:
· 22450 N San Ramon Dr., Bellita Model, 1,154, 2/1.75, Golf Course - $485,000
· 12930 W Micheltorena Dr., Arcada Model, 1,612/sf., 2/2, Recent remodel - $550,000
· 23325 N De La Guerra Dr., San Marco Model, 1,904/sf., 2/2, Private lot, Pool - $623,500
· 22516 N Padaro Dr., San Marco Model, 1,904/sf., 2/2, 2.5 car garage, Pool - $625,000
· 12944 W Quinto Dr., Encanto Model, 2,095/sf., 3/2 - $670,000
· 22410 N Del Monte Ct., Mirada Model, 2,559/sf, 3/2.5, Golf Course, Water - $925,000
· 13219 W Junipero Dr., Figueroa Model, 2,784/sf., 3/2.5, Golf Course - $940,000
SOLD LISTINGS (06/01/22 - 06/19/22):
· 13418 W Nogales Dr., Montecito Model, 1,351/sf., 2/2, Corner Lot - $492,000
· 13755 W Nogales Dr., Arcada Model, 1,660/sf., 2/2 - $524,500
· 12903 W La Vina Dr., Encanto Model, 2,066/sf., 3/2 - $615,000
· 22914 N Hank Raymond Dr., Granada Model, 3,027, 3/2, Golf Course - $850,000
I am a Corte Bella resident. I may not be the listing agent on the above properties. If you or someone you know is interested in touring one of these properties, I would be happy to arrange a showing.
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