I am expanding my weekly posting to include brief commentary on the housing market in general and Corte Bella specific. If you like the addition, please send me a quick thumbs.
Market Summary for May 2022 versus May 2021 (Maricopa County).
The Maricopa County housing market is changing. Inventory is rising as are mortgage rates. In this post, I am providing a year-over-year comparison for the Maricopa County housing market. Here are the basics - the Arizona Multiple Listing Service numbers for May 1, 2022, compared with May 1, 2021, for all areas and types:
· Active Listings excluding Under Contract accepting Backup offers (“UCB”) and contracts contingent of buyers sale or its property (“CCBS”): 6,688 versus 5,080 last year - up 31.7% - and up 32.4% from 5,051 last month.
· Active Listings (including UCB & CCBS): 10,161 versus 9,438 last year - up 8.0% and up 17.6% compared with 8,663 last month.
· Pending Listings: 7,386 versus 7,829 last year - down 5.7% - and down 7.8% from 8,008 last month.
· Under Contract Listings (including Pending, CCBS & UCB): 10,889 versus 12,187 last year - down 10.7% - and down 6.3% from 11,620 last month.
· Monthly Sales: 9,270 versus 10,200 last year - down 9.1% - and down 8.6% from 10,144 last month.
· Monthly Average Sales Price per Sq. Ft.: $302.64 versus $243.36 last year - up 24.4% and up 4.1% from $290.75 last month.
· Monthly Median Sales Price: $466,000 versus $373,000 last year - up 24.9% - and up 2.3% from $456,000 last month.
Between late October 2021, and mid-March 2022, we saw a downward trend in supply. However, this has changed direction over the past 6 weeks and active listing counts are rising strongly. They are up over 32% in a single month, one of the most dramatic shifts in direction I have ever seen. If this trend continues for several months, the market dynamics will change significantly.
The large increase in supply is caused by a combination of factors. First, we are seeing more new listings arrive, possibly because people who have made large unrealized profits cash out while the going is good. Second, we are seeing a significant drop in demand as a sudden jump in interest rates and eye-watering prices discourage new owner-occupiers from entering the market. We note that listings under contract are down over 6% since last month. Closed sales are also down over 9% from April 2021. Demand is weak and getting weaker.
The overall effect is a major cooling event, turning a hot housing market into one that still favors sellers (for now) but is looking increasingly dangerous with each passing day. It only favors sellers because the supply is still low compared with a normal market. But if supply continues to increase, as looks likely we could quickly find ourselves with as many sellers as buyers. The market does not turn on a dime, but it can change dramatically over a handful of months, as it did between August and November 2005. The charts today suggest we are now entering a very different phase of the market cycle.
Make no mistake - closed prices will continue to rise for some time - they are a trailing indicator and will only stop rising long after the market has cooled down. But it does not take too much imagination to envisage a situation where they overshoot. We have just seen the average price/SF rise 4.1% in a single month. But this reflects the huge imbalance between supply and demand that existed two months ago. That imbalance is much smaller today and is shrinking noticeably with every passing day.
We are entering a much more uncertain period and great caution is advisable. The mid-range market between April 2021 and April 2022 has been largely driven by enthusiastic investors. If their enthusiasm dissipates and turns to fear, we could see far more rapid change than we have become used to. I am not expecting a crash, but a significant slow-down and return to a balanced market.
I focus solely on Corte Bella. Corte Bella is predominantly a retirement community and as such, it often acts differently than County wide trends. For example, many homes in Corte Bella are purchased for cash so interest rates do not impact a buyer’s purchase decision. There are other dynamics affecting buying and selling homes in Corte Bella, which is why you need an expert who focuses solely on Corte Bella.
Don’t feel you have to go it alone. If you are thinking of buying or selling call me and let’s discuss your situation.
ACTIVE LISTINGS:
· 22516 N San Ramon Dr., Quinta Model, 1,283/sf., 2/1.75, GC - $465,000
· 13418 W Nogales Dr., Montecito Model, 1,351/sf., 2/2 - $485,000*
· 22914 N Hank Raymond Dr., Granada Model, 3,027, 3/2, GC - $859,000
· 22410 N Del Monte Ct., Mirada Model, 2,559/sf, 3/2.5, GC, Water - $925,000
· 13219 W Junipero Dr., Figueroa Model, 2,784/sf., 3/2.5, GC - $925,000*
· 13307 W Rincon Dr., Figueroa Model, 2,784/sf., 2/2.5, GC, Pool - $1,055,000
· 12832 W Rincon Ct., Cambria Model, 2,470/sf., 3/2, Pool - $825,000*
* New listing this week
** Temporarily off Market
COMING SOON
· None
UNDER CONTACT ACCEPTING BACKUPS:
· 12903 W La Vina Dr., Encanto Model, 2,066/sf., 3/2 - $630,000
· 13005 W Panchita Dr., Cambria Model, 2,690/sf., 3/2, Casita - $699,995
UNDER CONTRACT CONTINGENT ON BUYER SALE:
· 22719 N Arrellaga Dr., Arcada Model, 1,636/sf., 2/2 - $470,000
PENDING LISTINGS:
· 22409 N Los Gatos Dr., Quinta Model, 1,283/sf., 2/1.75 - $425,000
· 13755 W Nogales Dr., Arcada Model, 1,660/sf., 2/2 - $524,500
· 22310 La Positas Dr., Arcada Model, 1,636/sf., 3/3, Casita - $548,000
· 12930 W Micheltorena Dr., Arcada Model, 1,612/sf., 2/2 - $550,000
· 22225 N Pedregosa Dr., Encanto Model, 2,143/sf., 3/2 - $559,000
· 12855 W El Sueno Dr., Encanto Model (Expanded), 2,143/sf., 3/2 - $569,000
· 13803 E Figueroa Dr., Encanto Model (?), 2,143/sf., 3/2 - $634,900
· 22807 N Del Monte Dr., Cambria Model; 2,362/sf, 2/2, Golf Lot - $699,000
· 22118 N Las Positas Dr., Encanto, 2,143/sf., 3/2, Pool, 3 Car Grg - $709,000
· 13228 W Santa Ynez Dr., Figueroa Model, 2,7984/sf., 3/2 - $770,000
· 23212 N Del Monte Dr., Alameda, 2,976, 4/3.5, Golf Course - $949,000
· 22508 N Del Monte Ct., Figueroa, 2,784/sf., 2/3, GC, Pool - $1,149,000
SOLD LISTINGS (05/01/22 - 05/15/22):
· 22617 N Arrellaga Dr., Arcada Model, 1,684/sf., 2/2 - $474,900
· 13416 W Santa Ynez Dr., Cambria Model, 2,423/sf., 3/2, Pool - $685,000
· 23036 N Padaro Ct., Granada Model, 3,037/sf., 3/2 + Casita. - $675,000
· 13423 W La Vina Dr., Mirada (2,560/sf.), Casita, 2,840/sf total - $750,000
· 22208 N San Ramon Dr., Figueroa Model, 2,784/sf., 2/3, G - $845,000
· 13230 W Rincon Dr., Figueroa Model, 2,784/sf, 3/2.5, Solar - $829,000
I am a Corte Bella resident. I may not be the listing agent on the above properties. If you or someone you know is interested in touring one of these properties, I would be happy to arrange a showing.
Jon K. Ladd, Realtor
ICON Homes AZ
KELLER WILLIAMS REALTY ELITE
2403 N. Pebble Creek Pkwy, Ste 101-A
Goodyear, AZ 85396
480.205.7331
jkladd@iconhomesaz.com
www.iconhomesaz.com
AZ License #SA693977000
The information contained herein is believed to be accurate however you are encouraged to confirm this information before relying upon it.
Comments