It's Charts week!
One reason I moved my weekly post from Nextdoor is the ability to include charts and graphs to help you better understand today's housing market. So, let's get to it!
In October 2011, the average per square foot price of a house in Maricopa County was $80.35/psf (per square foot). Two years ago (May of 2020) the average per square foot price of a house in Maricopa County was $180.26/psf. Today, the average per square foot price of a house in Maricopa County was $306.45/psf. (Chart courtesy of the Cromford Report). To say the Phoenix housing market has been the place to be is an understatement.
As one would expect Phoenix’s population growth has been a significant contributor to the dramatic increase in housing prices. An equal contributor one might not think of, however, has been the dearth of housing inventory which, except for the 2008-2009 housing crash, has been an issue since 2000. Phoenix simply has not built enough homes in relation to demand. This is still the case. The charts below drives the point home.
The days of inventory or days on market (“DOM”) this past March hit an all-time low of 16.4 days, meaning the entire supply of homes for sale turned over every 16.4 days, which is an incredible metric. However, since mid-March inventory has almost doubled up from 16.4 to 32.2 DOM supply. The implication is we are headed for a crash just like 2008-2009. Right? Not so fast.
These are uncertain times, so optimists (sellers) will probably view the above favorably. Pessimists (buyers) can rightly claim that the DOM increase between mid-March and today is a faster increase than we saw in 2005, the last year in which we experienced a similar sudden change following a buying frenzy and preceding the housing crash of 2008-2009.
If days of inventory returns to the 120 to 140 DOM supply like we saw in February 2011 and December 2013, the housing market will have returned to a normal balanced market, but if the number of DOM supply stays well below that (say 50 to 60 DOM supply), then the seller's market will have survived, and upward pricing pressure will still persist. Once again, even with the recent increase, the inventory level today remains between 16-20 DOM, which is a long ways from 50-60 DOM supply, and another galaxy away from 120-140 DOM supply. Until our inventory level threatens 120-140 DOM supply, I see a decline in the number of units closed, an increase in the DOM, and stabilized prices through year-end.
I will be closely watching the days on market trend and will update you when there is new information.
I focus my efforts on Corte Bella, which is predominantly a retirement community and often acts differently than County wide trends. For example, many homes in Corte Bella are purchased for cash so interest rates do not impact a buyer’s purchase decision. There are other dynamics affecting buying and selling homes in Corte Bella, which is why you need an expert who focuses solely on Corte Bella. Don’t feel you have to go it alone. If you are thinking of buying or selling call me and let’s discuss your situation.
ACTIVE LISTINGS:
· 22516 N San Ramon Dr., Quinta Model, 1,283/sf., 2/2, Golf Lot - $465,000*
· 22516 N Padaro Dr., San Marco Model, 1,904/sf., 2/2, Pool - $625,000*
· 12944 W Quinto Dr., Encanto Model, 2,095/sf., 3/2 - $670,000*
· 13005 W Panchita Dr., Cambria Model, 2,690/sf., 3/2, Casita - $699,995
· 12832 W Rincon Ct., Cambria Model, 2,470/sf., 3/2, Pool - $825,000
· 13232 W Los Bancos, Figueroa Model, 2,784/sf., 2/2.5,3 car garage - $849,000
· 22410 N Del Monte Ct., Mirada Model, 2,559/sf, 3/2.5, Golf Course, Water - $925,000
· 13307 W Rincon Dr., Figueroa Model, 2,784/sf., 2/2.5, Golf Course, Pool - $1,055,000
* New listing this week
** Temporarily off Market
COMING SOON
· 129004 Quinto Dr., Encanto Model, 2,095/sf., 3/2 - $670,000
UNDER CONTACT ACCEPTING BACKUPS:
· 12903 W La Vina Dr., Encanto Model, 2,066/sf., 3/2 - $630,000
· 13219 W Junipero Dr., Figueroa Model, 2,784/sf., 3/2.5, Golf Course - $940,000
UNDER CONTRACT CONTINGENT ON BUYER SALE:
· 22719 N Arrellaga Dr., Arcada Model, 1,636/sf., 2/2 - $470,000
PENDING LISTINGS:
· 13418 W Nogales Dr., Montecito Model, 1,351/sf., 2/2, Corner Lot - $485,000
· 22450 N San Ramon Dr., Bellita Model, 1,154, 2/1.75, Golf Course - $485,000
· 13755 W Nogales Dr., Arcada Model, 1,660/sf., 2/2 - $524,500
· 12930 W Micheltorena Dr., Arcada Model, 1,612/sf., 2/2, Recent remodel - $550,000
· 22118 N Las Positas Dr., Encanto Model, 2,143/sf., 3/2, Pool, 3 Car Garage - $709,000
· 22914 N Hank Raymond Dr., Granada Model, 3,027, 3/2, Golf Course - $859,000
SOLD LISTINGS (05/01/22 - 05/29/22):
· 22409 N Los Gatos Dr., Quinta Model, 1,283/sf., 2/1.75, Over-sized Lot - $425,000
· 22617 N Arrellaga Dr., Arcada Model, 1,684/sf., 2/2 - $474,900
· 22310 La Positas Dr., Arcada Model, 1,636/sf., 3/3, Casita - $548,000
· 12855 W El Sueno Dr., Encanto Model (Expanded), 2,143/sf., 3/2 - $569,000
· 22225 N Pedregosa Dr., Encanto Model, 2,143/sf., 3/2 - $559,000
· 13803 E Figueroa Dr., Encanto Model (?), 2,143/sf., 3/2 - $634,900
· 13416 W Santa Ynez Dr., Cambria Model, 2,423/sf., 3/2, Pool, Extended Garage - $685,000
· 23036 N Padaro Ct., Granada Model, 3,037/sf., 3/2 + Casita. - $675,000
· 22807 N Del Monte Dr., Cambria Model (Expanded); 2,362/sf, 2/2, Golf Lot - $699,000
· 13423 W La Vina Dr., Mirada Model (2,560/sf.) + Casita (247/sf) 2,840/sf total - $750,000
· 13228 W Santa Ynez Dr., Figueroa Model, 2,7984/sf., 3/2 - $770,000
· 22208 N San Ramon Dr., Figueroa Model, 2,784/sf., 2/3, Golf Course - $845,000
· 13230 W Rincon Dr., Figueroa Model, 2,784/sf, 3/2.5, Owned Solar - $829,000
· 23212 N Del Monte Dr., Alameda Model, 2,976, 4/3.5, Golf Course - $949,000
· 22508 N Del Monte Ct., Figueroa Model, 2,784/sf., 2/3, Golf Lot, Pool - $1,149,000
I am a year-round Corte Bella resident. I may not be the listing agent on the above properties. If you or someone you know is interested in touring one of these properties, I would be happy to arrange a showing.
Jon K. Ladd, Realtor
ICON Homes AZ
KELLER WILLIAMS REALTY ELITE
2403 N. Pebble Creek Pkwy, Ste 101-A
Goodyear, AZ 85396
480.205.7331
jkladd@iconhomesaz.com
www.iconhomesaz.com
AZ License #SA693977000
The information contained herein is believed to be accurate however you are encouraged to confirm this information before relying upon it.
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