October 10 – 23 Weekly Recap and Forecast
Here are the stats for Corte Bella for the 2-week period 10/10 – 10/23:
Active (For Sale): 34 (29)
Coming Soon: 2 (1)
Under Contract Accepting Backups 1 (2)
Under Contract Contingent on Buyer Sale: 3 (4)
Pending: 3 (4)
Closed Properties: 4 (4)
*The () indicates the previous week. No report last week.
I was a no-show here last week and I apologize about that. I needed a little R & R. It’s officially High Season in CB so from today until May it is game time!
How his year’s High Season will shake out is anyone’s guess. As of today, there are 34 listings in Corte Bella. Month to date there have been four closings, and there are only three pending properties. So, there is plenty of supply but not much demand. We’ll see what the snowbirds bring with them this year. Cash buyers will have the upper hand and will demand concessions and price reductions. Financed buyers and Sellers will have no particular leverage over the other. Seller’s are facing a tough interest rate environment while financed buyers have to contend with dramatically increasing mortgage rates with no end in sight.
In most years, mortgage interest rates do not have a large impact on the housing market. This year is not, however, a typical year. This is because the increases in interest rates have been both fast and enormous. The chart below shows increases in the 30-year fixed rate over the past month:
Rates increased by 14% (6.47% to 7.37%) over the last month alone. This is a colossal hit to affordability in a short time and is causing a drop in demand we have not experienced since the 1980s.
If mortgage rates increase over a short period of time as we have seen of late, demand will fall, but will not alone cause prices to fall. Falling prices require both high interest rates and negative market sentiment. Both appear to exist today. I just reduced the price on one of my listings today and the MLS today shows several additional price reductions in Corte Bella. The reductions are not dramatic, but rather, just enough to signal to prospective buyers that sellers are getting anxious and ready to "talk turkey."
The market is moving for buyers, but nothing like as fast as it did during the bursting of the 2005-6 bubble. Prices are likely to continue to retreat but relatively slowly and modestly. Any talk of massive price drops is pure speculation. I am not saying it cannot happen. Anything is possible in the right circumstances. But if supply tightens as discouraged sellers leave the market (as I believe will be the case), prices should stabilize. That is about the best we can hope for in the short term.
Next week, the Market Cycle and where we are now. P.S., it's good news!
Have a great week!
I am a year-round Corte Bella resident and I put 100% of my effort into Corte Bella sales transactions although occasionally, I will assist my sales clients relocating to another area in Arizona. As the market changes it is important you have clear picture of the value of your home should you decide to sell. No one knows Corte Bella than I do. I sell Premier Properties with Premier Service.
The information contained herein is believed to be accurate however you are encouraged to confirm this information before relying upon it.
ACTIVE LISTINGS AS OF 10/23/22:
22036 N Arrellaga Dr., Arcada Model, 1,660/sf., 2/2,- $425,000
12812 W Junipero Dr., Arcada Model, 1,684/sf., 2/2, vacant - $449,000
13703 W Nogales Dr., Arcada Model, 1,660/sf., 2/2 - $473,000
22512 N San Ramon Dr., Bellita Model, 1,154/sf., 2/2, GC lot - $478,000***
13413 W Junipero Dr., Arcada Model, 1,660/sf, 2+2 + Den - $497,500***
22027 N Arrellaga Dr., Arcada Model, 1,684/sf, 2/2 + Den - $497,500
12948 W Micheltorena Dr., San Ysidro Model, 1,811/sf., 2/2 - $515,000*
13838 W Nogales Dr., San Marco Model, 1,904/sf., 3/2, Vacant, Corner Lot, $524,900*
12939 W Micheltorena Dr., San Marco Model, 3/2, Expanded Garage - $539,000*
22133 N Arrellaga Dr., San Ysidro Model, 1,837/sf., 3/2, Fire Pit, Lg Yard - $550,000*
23307 N De La Guerra Ct., Arcada Model, 1,684/sf., 2/2, Pool - $582,000***
12750 W Nogales Dr., San Marco Model, 2,151/sf., 3/3, Casita, Fire Pit - $599,000
13432 W Los Bancos Dr., Encanto Model, 2,095/sf., 2/2 Plus Den, Corner lot - $599,750
12959 W. Rincon Dr., San Marco Model, 1,904/sf., 3/2 - $599,900
22823 N Los Gatos Dr., Encanto Model, 2,095/sf., 3/2, Casita - $619,900
13827 W Figueroa Dr., Encanto Model, 1,684/sf., 2/2, Covered Patio - $622,500
22813 N Las Positas Dr., San Marco Model, 1,904/sf., 3/2, GC Lot - $635,000*
13524 W Sola Dr., Cambria Model, 2,362/sf, 3/2 Plus Office - $639,000
12904 W La Vina Dr., Cambria Model, 2,423/sf., 3/2 Plus Wine Room - $675,000
13739 W Sola Dr., Alameda Model, 2,726/sf., 3/2.5, 2.5 Car Garage - $677,000*
13005 W Panchita Dr., Cambria Model, 2,690/sf., 3/2, Casita - $694,000***
22132 N Los Gatos Dr., Encanto Model, 2,095/sf., 2/2, GC Lot - $699,000
12832 W Rincon Ct., Cambria Model, 2,470/sf., 2/2, Pool - $725,000
12950 W Quinto Dr., Mirada Model, 2,559/sf., 3/2.5 - $729,000*
23109 N Hank Ramon Dr., Figueroa Model, 2,840/sf., 3/3.5, Casita, GC Lot - $750,0000***
22314 N Padaro, Encanto Model, 2,579/sf., 3/3, Former Model Home, Casita - $769,900*
22915 Las Positos Dr., San Marco Model, 2,151/sf., 3/3, Plus 1 BR/1 Casita, GC Lot - $825,000
22817 N Galicia Dr., Mirada Model, 2,593/sf., 2/2, Cart Garage, GC Lot - $827,000*
13147 W Sola Ct., Granada Model, 3,027/sf., 3/2.5, GC Lot - $875,000
22111 N Giovota Dr., Mirada Model, 2,840/sf., 3/2.5, Casita, GC Lot - $888,000
13239 W Rincon Dr., Granada Model, 3,255/sf., 4/3.5, Casita, GC Lot - $920,000
13220 W Los Bancos Dr., Granada Model, 3,027 sf., 3/2.5, Pool - $920,000
23230 N Del Monte Dr., Mirada Model, 2,806/sf., 3/3.5, Casita, Pool, GC Lot - $933,000
22108 San Ramon Dr., Figueroa Model, 2,784/sf, 3/3, 3-car grg, Pool, GC Lot - $949,900
* New listing this week
** Price reduction
*** Temporarily off market
**** Back on Market
COMING SOON
22609 N Galicia Dr., 2,840/sf., 3/3.5, Mirada Model + Casita, GC Lot - $889,900
12818 W Junipero Dr., Montecito Model + Casita, 1,628/sf., 3/2.75 - $509,900
UNDER CONTACT ACCEPTING BACKUPS
22207 N Montecito Ave., Cambria Model, 2,423/sf., 3/2, Pool - $649,900
UNDER CONTRACT CONTINGENT ON BUYER SALE:
13510 Nogales Dr., Arcada Model, 1,684/sf., Private lot - $505,000
23215 N Cardenas Dr., Mirada Model, 2,805/sf., 3/3.5, Casita, Putting Green - $729,950
22002 N Valerio Dr., Figueroa Model, 2,785/sf., 2/2, Spa, GC Lot - $799,000
PENDING LISTINGS:
22619 N Las Positas Dr., 1,636/sf., 2/2, New Kitchen, Pool - $550,000
23023 N Pedregosa Dr., Mirada Model, 2,593/sf., 2/2.5, 3-car garage, Pool - $798,000
22547 N Padaro Dr., Figueroa Model, 2,784/sf., 2/2.5, GC Lot, Pool - $925,000
SOLD LISTINGS (10/01/22 – 10/23/22):
23903 N Las Positas Dr., San Marco Model, 2/2, 1,904/sf., GC Lot - $635,000
12853 W Junipero Dr., San Ysidro Model, 1,837/sf., 2/2 - $675,000
22931 N. Padaro Dr., Encanto Model, 2,095/sf., 3/2, Casita - $725,000
13265 W Micheltorena Ct., Alameda Model, 2,726/sf., 3/2.5, cart garage, Pool - $710,000
If you are interested in seeing any of the above "Active" properties, I would be happy to arrange a showing.
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