October 31 - November 6 Weekly Corte Bella Recap and Forecast.
For the week of 10/31 – 11/07:
Active Properties (For Sale): 32 (34)
Coming Soon: 0 (1)
Under Contract - Accepting Backups 5 (1)
Under Contract - Contingent on Buyer Sale: 3 (3)
Pending: 1 (2)
Closed Properties 10/01 – 11/06: 8 (6)
*The () indicates the previous week.
The Sun City West (85375 Zip Code) Summary of Market Conditions is a useful tool to understand our current housing market. Below is the Summary as of November 5, 2022.
As you can see from the first chart (Active Listing Counts), after a steady increase in listings beginning in May/June (when the white-hot real estate market ended), listings have leveled off indicating the first leg of a stabilizing market. Similarly, the 6-Month Moving Average – List Price and Per Square Foot levelled off also indicating a stabilizing market. Lastly, however, the number of Sales Per Month has plummeted which indicates what is happening in the market today (nothing).
All told then, inventory has stabilized, prices have leveled off, and the number of closings has plummeted; which make this an excellent buyer’s market. Yes, 30-year fixed mortgage rates are high (7.2% +/-) when compared to the 2-3% rates we saw this past year, but when compared to the most used average mortgage rate ( 9%) current rates are not so bad. Now there’s optimism!
My expectation is for mortgage rates to settle somewhere between 7 and 9% for the next 12-18 months; after which I believe inflation will be brought under control and mortgage rates will decline back down to somewhere in the 5-6% range. The strategy for buyers, then, is to buy with a fixed or adjustable-rate mortgage (with per year and lifetime caps), to negotiate with the seller to pay for a 2/1 or 3/1 buy-down* and then refinance 18 -24 months out when rates come down.
*To stimulate their lending business, Lenders offer buyer/borrower a lower interest rate for 1 to 2 years in exchange for borrower paying an up-front fee (commonly called a “point”). For example, a lender offers a fixed rate mortgage of $400,000 on a $750,000 purchase, at 7.25% and agrees to reduce the rate to 6.25% for the first 24 months of the loan term in exchange for the buyer/borrower paying a 1% (or one “point”) buy-down fee. In this example:
Buyer/Borrower makes a full price offer on a home ($750,000) and will put $350,000 down for a loan amount of $400,000 on a 30-year fixed rate loan at 7.25%. This would cause a principal and interest payment of $2,728.00/mo.
The Buyer/Borrower negotiates a mortgage loan which includes an option buy the interest rate down 1% for the first 24 months of the loan term for a fee equal to 1% of the loan amount ($400,000 x 1% = $4,000). The Buyer/Borrower who made a full price offer in exchange for various concessions, including the Seller’s agreement to pay up to $4,000.00 of Buyer/Borrower’s loan costs.
In this case the Buyer/Borrower gets a below market mortgage rate of 6.25% for 24 months due to the Seller paying the $4,000.00 (one “point”) buy-down fee on the Buyer’s behalf. This buy-down would save the Buyer/Borrower $6,384.00* over 24 months. Then, in 24 months, if mortgage rates get back down to the 5-6% range, the Buyer/Borrower refinances the purchase loan/mortgage into a new 5-6% 30-year fixed rate mortgage.
*$2,728.00/mo. mortgage payment – 7.25% mortgage rate
2,462.00/mo. mortgage payment - 6.25% mortgage rate
$266.00/mo. x 24 ms. a = savings of $6,384.00 over 24 months.
In summary, it’s great to a buyer today if you take advantage of these tools!
Have great week ahead. Support your local real estate agent and buy a house this week!
I am a year-round Corte Bella resident and I put 100% of my effort into Corte Bella sales transactions although occasionally, I will assist my sales clients relocating to another area in Arizona. As the market changes it is important you have clear picture of the value of your home should you decide to sell. No one knows Corte Bella than I do. I sell Premier Properties and provide Premier Service. It makes a difference.
The information contained herein is believed to be accurate however you are encouraged to confirm this information before relying upon it.
Corte Bella Active, Pending, and Sold Report:
ACTIVE LISTINGS AS OF 11/06/22:
22036 N Arrellaga Dr., Arcada Model, 1,660/sf., 2/2,- $425,000
13703 W Nogales Dr., Arcada Model, 1,660/sf., 2/2 - $449,900
22512 N San Ramon Dr., Bellita Model, 1,154/sf., 2/2, GC lot - $478,000
22027 N Arrellaga Dr., Arcada Model, 1,684/sf, 2/2 + Den - $485,500
13413 W Junipero Dr., Arcada Model, 1,660/sf, 2/2 + Den - $497,500
13510 Nogales Dr., Arcada Model, 1,684/sf., Private lot - $499,000
13838 W Nogales Dr., San Marco Model, 1,904/sf., 3/2, Vacant, Corner Lot, Firepit - $499,900
12818 W Junipero Dr., Montecito Model + Casita, 1,628/sf, 3/3, $10k Closing Allowance - $500,00.00
12948 W Micheltorena Dr., San Ysidro Model, 1,811/sf., 2/2 - $515,000
12939 W Micheltorena Dr., San Marco Model, 3/2, Expanded Garage - $539,000
22133 N Arrellaga Dr., San Ysidro Model, 1,837/sf., 3/2, Fire Pit, Lg Yard - $548,000
13432 W Los Bancos Dr., Encanto Model, 2,095/sf., 2/2 Plus Den, Corner lot - $565,900***
12750 W Nogales Dr., San Marco Model, 2,151/sf., 3/3, Casita, Fire Pit - $599,000
12959 W. Rincon Dr., San Marco Model, 1,904/sf., 3/2 - $599,900
22823 N Los Gatos Dr., Encanto Model, 2,095/sf., 3/2, Casita - $599,900***
13827 W Figueroa Dr., Encanto Model, 1,684/sf., 2/2, Covered Patio - $622,500
22813 N Las Positas Dr., San Marco Model, 1,904/sf., 3/2, GC Lot - $635,000
13524 W Sola Dr., Cambria Model, 2,362/sf, 3/2 Plus Office - $639,000
13739 W Sola Dr., Alameda Model, 2,726/sf., 3/2.5, 2.5 Car Garage - $677,000
13005 W Panchita Dr., Cambria Model, 2,690/sf., 3/2, Casita - $694,000
22132 N Los Gatos Dr., Encanto Model, 2,095/sf., 2/2, GC Lot - $699,000
12832 W Rincon Ct., Cambria Model, 2,470/sf., 2/2, Pool - $725,000
12950 W Quinto Dr., Mirada Model, 2,559/sf., 3/2.5 - $729,000
23109 N Hank Ramon Dr., Figueroa Model, 2,840/sf., 3/3.5, Casita, GC Lot - $750,0000
22915 Las Positos Dr., San Marco Model, 2,151/sf., 3/3, Plus 1 BR/1 Casita, GC Lot - $825,000
22817 N Galicia Dr., Mirada Model, 2,593/sf., 2/2, Cart Garage, GC Lot - $827,000
13147 W Sola Ct., Granada Model, 3,027/sf., 3/2.5, GC Lot - $875,000
22111 N Giovota Dr., Mirada Model, 2,840/sf., 3/2.5, Casita, GC Lot - $888,000
22609 N Galicia Dr., 2,840/sf., 3/3.5, Mirada Model + Casita, GC Lot - $889,900*
13239 W Rincon Dr., Granada Model, 3,255/sf., 4/3.5, Casita, GC Lot - $920,000
13220 W Los Bancos Dr., Granada Model, 3,027 sf., 3/2.5, Pool - $920,000
22108 San Ramon Dr., Figueroa Model, 2,784/sf, 3/3, 3-car garage, Pool, GC Lot - $949,900
23307 N De La Guerra Ct., Arcada Model, 1,684/sf., 2/2, Pool - $540,000***
22130 N Arrellaga Dr., San Marco (1,904/sf) + Casita (247/sf), 3/3, Extended Garage - $584,000
* New listing this week
** Price reduction
*** Temporarily off market
**** Back on Market
COMING SOON
None
UNDER CONTACT ACCEPTING BACKUPS
12812 W Junipero Dr., Arcada Model, 1,684/sf., 2/2, vacant - $449,000
22207 N Montecito Ave., Cambria Model, 2,423/sf., 3/2, Pool - $649,900
12904 W La Vina Dr., Cambria Model, 2,423/sf., 3/2 Plus Wine Room - $675,000
22314 N Padaro, Encanto Model, 2,579/sf., 3/3, Former Model Home, Casita - $769,900
23230 N Del Monte Dr., Mirada Model, 2,806/sf., 3/3.5, Casita, Pool, GC Lot - $933,000
UNDER CONTRACT CONTINGENT ON BUYER SALE:
23215 N Cardenas Dr., Mirada Model, 2,805/sf., 3/3.5, Casita, Putting Green - $729,950
PENDING LISTINGS:
13105 W Junipero Dr., Arcada Model, 1,685/sf., 2/2, Lg Backyard, Recently Updated - $499,000
SOLD LISTINGS (10/01/22 – 11/06/22):
22619 N Las Positas Dr., 1,636/sf., 2/2, New Kitchen, Pool - $550,000
23903 N Las Positas Dr., San Marco Model, 2/2, 1,904/sf., GC Lot - $635,000
12853 W Junipero Dr., San Ysidro Model, 1,837/sf., 2/2 - $675,000
22931 N. Padaro Dr., Encanto Model, 2,095/sf., 3/2, Casita - $725,000
13265 W Micheltorena Ct., Alameda Model, 2,726/sf., 3/2.5, cart garage, Pool - $710,000
22002 N Valerio Dr., Figueroa Model, 2,785/sf., 2/2, Spa, GC Lot - $799,000
23023 N Pedregosa Dr., Mirada Model, 2,593/sf., 2/2.5, 3-car garage, Pool - $798,000
22547 N Padaro Dr., Figueroa Model, 2,784/sf., 2/2.5, GC Lot, Pool - $925,000
I may not be the listing agent on the above properties. If you or someone you know is interested in touring one of these properties, I would be happy to arrange a showing.
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